 On October 5, 2015, the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) 12 negotiating countries reached a basic agreement at a ministerial meeting in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, agreeing to free trade and standardizing in a wide range of areas such as investment and intellectual property. Based on the Trans-Pacific Economic Cooperation Agreement (TPP), US tariffs on Japanese-made auto parts will be abolished in the fifteenth year of the entry into force of the agreement. The tariff on the entire vehicle will also be revoked in the 25th year of the agreement's entry into force. TPP will abolish tariffs on 99.9% of industrial products. Automotive, dairy, electronics and textiles are considered to be the four industries most affected by China.
TPP or will squeeze China's parts exports is not enough to pose a threat
In the short term, the impact of TPP on the Chinese auto manufacturing industry is more concentrated in auto parts. TPP zero tariffs may squeeze China's exports of Japanese and US auto parts, but the impact is not serious. In view of the strategic significance of the Chinese auto market in the world, Japan and the United States and parts companies will not divest in large-scale in the short term, but will transfer the production of some thin components to countries with lower tariffs or even zero tariffs.
Cheng Xiaodong, chief automobile analyst of the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Testing Center, told NetEase. The TPP agreement will have some impact on China's auto parts exports to the US and Japan markets, but it is not enough to pose a threat. There are two reasons. First, China's autos are zero. The main exporting countries of components are more in Central America, the Middle East and other regions. Second, China's auto parts products are mainly concentrated on low value-added parts and components, lacking the competitiveness of key parts production, and have no core in overseas markets. Competitiveness, so how to improve the production and research capabilities of high value-added and high-tech products of Chinese auto parts as soon as possible is the key.
　 TPP affects China's auto parts exports to the US and Japan
The industrial chain from parts to vehicles is long. Even if the two major automobile manufacturing countries in Japan and the United States are closer together, there will be no immediate impact on the global automobile landscape in a short period of time. Compared with the whole vehicle, the tariff reduction policy for auto parts in the TPP agreement is more direct. According to the data, the current export volume of Japanese auto parts to the US is about 2 trillion yen per year, according to the provisions of the TPP agreement. Withdrawal of the 2.5% tariff calculation, the United States will reduce the amount of tariffs to Japan to around 50 billion yen. In the short term, the impact of the TPP agreement on the auto parts industry will be more obvious.
The abolition of tariffs on auto parts will have a profound impact on the auto industry in Japan and the United States. Therefore, Ford Motors will jump out against the TPP agreement for the first time. Compared with the large-scale attack of Japanese cars in the US market, American cars are still against Japan. The auto market is at a loss. Since Japan participated in the TPP negotiations in 2013, it has agreed to set the longest cancellation period for automobile tariffs in all items to ensure that the automobile industry of both countries can be protected as much as possible.
Similarly, for the Chinese auto industry, auto parts will be affected by the TPP. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the export performance of China's auto parts is obviously better than that of the whole vehicle. In 2014, the export of auto parts was 13.8 billion U.S. dollars, and the export of auto parts was as high as 68.8 billion yuan. The main exporting countries are the United States, Japan, South Korea and Germany. , the United Kingdom and so on.
According to data from the US Bureau of Statistics in August, in the first half of 2015, China’s exports of US auto parts increased by 16% year-on-year, with a market share of 14.3%, an increase of nearly 1 percentage point over the same period last year. According to customs statistics, from January to July this year, Tianjin Port exported auto parts worth 589 million US dollars, exported to the United States 237 million US dollars, an increase of 61.4%; exports to Japan was 108 million US dollars. The main reason for the growth of auto parts exports is that foreign investment in auto parts has increased year by year, resulting in rapid growth in exports. If the TPP implements a zero tax rate, some automakers may face the shift of auto parts production lines to Southeast Asian countries, such as tire manufacturing, and Southeast Asian countries with natural rubber raw materials have an advantage. This will indeed have an impact on the export of Chinese auto parts to the United States and Japan.
　　 TPP is not enough to pose a threat to Chinese components
Although the TPP agreement may affect the export of Chinese auto parts to the United States and Japan. However, the level of production and manufacture of domestic auto parts has increased. The manufacturing level of axles, frames, steering, brakes, electronics and appliances, trims, passenger protection systems, and exhaust systems can meet the standards of foreign automobile production. The manufacturing cost is only 10%-30 of similar foreign products. %. Have a higher export competitiveness.
However, at present, China's auto parts mainly rely on price to form an export advantage. After the implementation of TPP, Japanese companies' parts and components will have more price advantages, thus squeezing the living space of China's parts exports. However, the US market is not the only market for China's parts exports. The production of auto parts is dominated by the local auto market. The impact of TPP on Chinese auto parts is far from enough to pose a deadly threat.
Cheng Xiaodong said that the Chinese auto market is still driven by domestic demand, and the prices of complete vehicles and parts are open. The TPP agreement will not have much impact on the Chinese auto parts market. In the future, as the parts market matures, there may be More open policies to maintain the circulation of the auto parts market.
　　 The core competitiveness of local parts production needs to be improved
Cheng Xiaodong told reporters that the impact of TPP on China's auto parts will not pose a threat, but for China's auto parts companies, the future development situation is even more severe than the vehicle market. "At present, China's domestic component companies are still mainly producing low value-added parts, such as tires, engine brake pads, etc., high value-added key components, such as engine total range, electronic parts, etc. are still mainly imported, not With production capacity, it is therefore not competitive in overseas markets, and it has not entered the US market, so it will not be affected by the TPP agreement."
The primary task of China's parts industry is the improvement of core components research and development, technology reserves and production processes. Only by getting rid of the way of relying on price to obtain profits can we have truly effective competitiveness.
At present, China's auto parts market, the number of foreign-funded enterprises accounted for 20% of the number of large-scale enterprises, while the market share accounted for more than 70%, Chinese-funded parts companies accounted for only 30% of the market share, and showed a downward trend, of which 90% Products are concentrated in the low-end and mid-range areas. Although auto parts produced based on the auto market will not be transferred in large scale due to the TPP agreement, the competitiveness of the main parts companies is very weak. In the long run, it is not known how the tariffs of various countries will be adjusted in the future. In addition to price advantages, Chinese component companies need more core competitiveness to cope with the unpredictable global economic landscape.
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