The machinery industry is expected to bottom out in the third quarter. We judge that the most difficult period for construction machinery in the early cycle has passed, and that cyclical industries such as construction machinery, machine tools, and industrial energy-saving equipment may resume in the second half of the year. Power plants, new types of coal chemicals, etc. The start of a batch of major projects will benefit related equipment companies.
To maintain the industry's bullish rating, it is recommended to focus on the deployment of relatively cyclical scrapers, machine tools, industrial energy-saving equipment, and other companies, and pay close attention to the investment opportunities arising from the launch of major projects.
The most difficult period for construction machinery has passed
With the resumption of a number of major infrastructure projects such as railways and water conservancy projects, and the improvement in the sales of the property market, we have determined that the most difficult period for demand for construction machinery has passed and that the demand for major products will gradually improve in the second half of the year. We expect that construction machinery will grow by about 15% in 2012, and sales of major varieties will increase by around 10%.
According to the Federation of Machinery Industry, the sales value of construction machinery in the first four months of 2012 was 19.73 billion yuan, an increase of 0.69% year-on-year, and the growth rate was down by about 34 percentage points from 2011; export output value was 11 billion yuan, accounting for 5.58%. , an increase of 43.89%.
From a trend point of view, construction machinery continued its downward trend in the second quarter. The sales of main products for excavators in May was 10,870 units in May, an increase of -24% year-on-year, and the decline rate of about 40% from the previous April has been significantly narrowed. The sales growth of key enterprises such as Sany Heavy Industry (600031) and Liugong (000528) has been positive in May.
Machine tool still has downward pressure
Considering that the machine tool industry cycle lags behind that of construction machinery, we believe that machine tools will continue to decline in the third quarter. It is expected that the growth rate of the machine tool industry in 2012 will be between 10% and 15%.
According to data from the Federation of Machinery Industry, in the first four months of 2012, the sales value of the domestic machine tool industry was 221.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.01%, and the growth rate was down 16% from 2011. Among them, the export value of 13.2 billion yuan, accounting for 5.96%, an increase of 14.12%; the main product of the first four months of gold-cutting machine production increased -8.85%, machine tool numerical control equipment increased by 169.86%.
Rapid growth in demand for heavy mining machinery
Despite the past period of time, the National Development and Reform Commission reviewed and approved the Guangxi Chenggang Port and Guangdong Zhanjiang steel projects. However, given the reality of the overall overcapacity in the steel industry and the decline in corporate profits, it is expected that the heavy mining machinery will remain difficult to optimistic for some time to come.
According to data from the Federation of Machinery Industry, in the first four months of 2012, the sales value of domestic heavy mining machinery industry was 274.2 billion yuan, an increase of 15.03% over the same period of last year. Among them, the export value of 21 billion yuan, accounting for 7.66%, an increase of 29.57%; major products of mining equipment, metal smelting equipment and metal rolling equipment in April before the output rose by 31.44%, 17.67% and 23.45% respectively.
Polypropylene (PP), as one of the five general plastics, is widely used in daily life.
Polypropylene is a plastic raw material with minimal density, and its appearance is colorless and translucent particles. As a food grade plastic, it is widely used in food packaging, such as foam plastic boxes, PP plastic cups, and so on. Polypropylene can be divided into five categories according to its main uses: PP injection molding, PP drawing, PP fiber, PP film, and PP pipe.
1. PP injection molding:
PP injection plastic is mainly used in small household appliances, toys, washing machines, auto parts, etc.
In recent years, the improvement of people's living standards and the implementation of China's second tire have led to a gradual increase in the demand for polypropylene injection molding in the downstream. Different injection molding varieties also have differences in their demand in the low and high seasons. For example, the demand for injection molding pots and barrels is relatively strong in the school season, while the demand for accessories and gifts is booming due to the impact of many festivals. In general, PP injection molding is relatively frequently used.
2. PP wire drawing:
Polypropylene wire drawing is mainly used in plastic woven products. The daily use of container bags, woven bags, food bags and transparent bags are all PP wire drawing products.
Since the implementation of domestic environmental protection in 2017, the demand for packaging of cement and building materials has been declining, and the plastic weaving industry has been greatly impacted. Accordingly, the PP plastic weaving market is under pressure. In the future, the proportion of PP plastic weaving in the overall use of polypropylene will continue to decline, and the plastic weaving industry will gradually expand into large packaging bags with high capacity, high quality or small packaging bags with low capacity and low content.
3. PP film:
Polypropylene film is generally divided into BOPP film, CPP film and IPP film. PP film is mainly used for food packaging.
Compared with PE packaging bags, PP film food packaging bags have better transparency, greater hardness and more high-end appearance. Downstream demand is mainly concentrated around festivals and holidays.
4. PP fiber:
Polypropylene fiber is a kind of fiber product made from polypropylene by melt spinning. It is mainly used in decoration, clothing and other fields. Since the implementation of the second child in 2011, the downstream wet wipes, diapers and other maternal and infant supplies have increased sharply, and the domestic fiber material has been in short supply.
According to data statistics, the global demand for fiber will continue to grow significantly, and the composite annual growth rate is expected to be 2.6% from 2017 to 2025. Therefore, the downstream demand for PP fiber will continue to grow in the later period.
5. PP pipe:
PP pipe material is mainly used in water supply and heating systems due to its non-toxic and high-temperature resistant properties. Compared with PE pipe material, PP pipe material has light weight, convenient transportation, good environmental protection performance and can be recycled.
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