Do new energy make money? List of 50 industry chain companies H1 performance forecast

Recently, more than 40 new energy auto industry chain listed companies released 2018 half-year performance forecast, including vehicle, power battery, battery materials, motor electronic control and other sub-sectors.

As early as the beginning of May this year, the operating results of the Q1 financial report of the listed companies in the battery industry chain, from the statistical results, the performance of upstream battery materials companies is gratifying, downstream battery manufacturers are relatively bleak, business performance is seriously divided. From the first half of the performance forecast, this law continues, and the more downstream the industry chain, the greater the impact of policy changes. As the watershed of this year's subsidy policy, June 12, the market performance before and after the transition period is also very different.

Up to now, there are not many listed companies that have announced the expected forecast. BYD, Haima Automobile, Zhongtong Bus and Ankai Bus are all down year-on-year. Among them, BYD expects net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of the year to be 300 million yuan to 500 million yuan, which is also the top in the passenger car market performance in January-June. Despite the momentum of development and high sales growth in the market, BYD also said in its performance forecast that “the overall profitability of the new energy vehicle business including electric buses and new energy passenger vehicles is higher than that of the same period last year. There is a large decline."

However, the passenger car market is not optimistic. Unlike last year, June 2017 is the recovery period for the new energy market. In June this year, it became the peak of the bus market. In January-May, the new energy bus continued to grow for five consecutive months, and the momentum in June came to an abrupt end. New energy buses increased by -27.8% year-on-year, up 57-8% from May.

In addition to factors such as delayed subsidies and long return period, Zhongtong Bus and Ankai Bus reported a profit of 0.33 billion yuan and a loss of 150 million yuan respectively, an increase of -56.15% and -421.1%.

The first part of the battery sector, Ningde era riding a dust

A total of 14 companies in the power battery industry released performance forecasts, including 5 companies pre-increasing, 7 companies pre-reduction (three of which were at a loss), and two companies were flat; pre-reduction of non-recurring gains and losses in enterprises, Ningde era, billion Weft lithium energy has achieved performance growth.

According to the data of real lithium research, a total of 77 battery core plants in the first half of 2018 achieved installed capacity, of which CATL ranked first with 6.258GWh (42.24%); BYD accounted for 2.35GWh at 21.50%. , ranked second; the two together accounted for 63.74%. Guoxuan Hi-Tech ranked third with 892.23 MWh 5.73%, fourth with 753.56 MWh accounting for 4.84%, and the fifth with RMB 547.82 MWh. .52%, 5 total accounts for 77.82%.

In the Ningde era, the company will achieve growth after deducting non-recurring gains and losses. In the Ningde era, after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, it is expected to achieve a net profit of 6.71-731 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.43%. -39.56%; Yiwei lithium can be deducted from non-recurring gains and losses and is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.43-1.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30-40%.

In the process of the annual average 15% decline in the price of power battery products, the national subsidy policy has repeatedly raised the requirements of product technical indicators. Therefore, the market structure of the power battery industry is rapidly concentrated to leading enterprises with large-scale and product technology. Among them, the Ningde era has already gone abroad to obtain orders from foreign brands such as Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz, and faces overseas LG, SDI, Panasonic and other overseas first-line power battery competition; Lishen Power and other enterprises have also received orders for joint venture products from Beijing Hyundai and other companies.

With the continuous concentration of market share, Ningde era (deduction of non-speed growth of 31%-40%), Guoxuan Hi-Tech (continued), Yiwei lithium energy (deduction of non-speed growth of 30%-40%) and other corporate competitiveness will Continue to stand out.

The material sector has increased the loss and the leading value has gradually become prominent.

In the case of a doubling of the installed capacity of power batteries, the overall performance of the battery material industry is improving. 15 battery companies in the battery industry announced the first half of the 18-year performance forecast, including 9 companies pre-increasing, 3 companies continued to increase, and 3 companies pre-reduction.

From the perspective of market sales structure, the main force of the new energy vehicle market in the first half of the year is still concentrated on passenger cars. As the mainstream battery type of passenger cars, the ternary battery is undoubtedly the first technical route in the field of power batteries. According to the data of true lithium research, the installed capacity of ternary power battery reached 56% of the total installed capacity in the first half of this year. The high-nickel three-yuan leader Dangsheng Technology achieved a non-net profit growth rate of 92%-123%, and the ternary precursor grew rapidly. GEM has achieved a net profit growth rate of 30%-60%.

The competitive advantages of high-end overseas industrial chains in other materials sectors have gradually become prominent. The domestic leading source materials in the dry-membrane field have achieved a year-on-year growth of 116%. In the electrolyte field, the new-state performance in the first half of this year has grown at a rate of -10%-10%. Significant improvement in the first quarter.

Motor electronically controlled charging pile plate

A total of 13 companies in the motor electronic control company released the first half of the 18-year performance forecast, of which 3 pre-increased (including 2 losses), 4 continued to renew, and 6 pre-reduced (one of which was loss).

According to the data, as of June 18, 271,751 public charging piles were reported, including 119,445 AC charging piles, 87,956 DC charging piles, and 64,350 AC and DC charging piles; 5,520 new public charging piles were added in June.

The installed capacity of charging piles continued to increase, and the price of single piles generally declined. After the bidding of the State Grid, it is expected that the reaction will increase during the year. The motor control is subject to the subsidy decline, and the vehicle pressure will shift to the cost end. The unit value of the motor electronic control will decline. Therefore, the enterprises in the electric control charging pile sector of the motor failed to benefit from the growth in the first half of the year, and the overall performance was flat.